MS/Sheldon M. Ross-Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition (). pdf. Find file Copy path. Fetching contributors Cannot retrieve contributors at. DRM-free (PDF, Mobi, EPub) Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic. Introduction to. Probability Models. Ninth Edition. Sheldon M. Ross. University of California. Berkeley, California. AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG •.
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Introduction to Probability. Models. Tenth Edition. Sheldon M. Ross. University of Southern California. Los Angeles, California. AMSTERDAM • BOSTON. Theoretical basis for stochastic processes and their use as models of real-world phenomena. Topics include Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian motion and stationary processes. Applications include Gambler's Ruin, birth and death models, hitting times, stock option pricing. Introduction to Probability Models Tenth Edition This page intentionally left blank Introduction to Probability Models Tenth Edition Sheldon M. Ross University of.
Skip to search form Skip to main content. Ross Published Prerequisites: Theoretical basis for stochastic processes and their use as models of real-world phenomena. Topics include Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian motion and stationary processes. Applications include Gambler's Ruin, birth and death models, hitting times, stock option pricing, and the BlackScholes model.
So the next slide, of which you do have in your handout, gives you a few more details about the class. Maybe one thing to comment here is that you do need to read the text.
And with calculus books, perhaps you can live with a just a two page summary of all of the interesting formulas in calculus, and you can get by just with those formulas. But here, because we want to develop concepts and intuition, actually reading words, as opposed to just browsing through equations, does make a difference. In the beginning, the class is kind of easy. When we deal with discrete probability, that's the material until our first quiz, and some of you may get by without being too systematic about following the material.
But it does get substantially harder afterwards. And I would keep restating that you do have to read the text to really understand the material.
So now we can start with the real part of the lecture. Let us set the goals for today.
So probability, or probability theory, is a framework for dealing with uncertainty, for dealing with situations in which we have some kind of randomness. So what we want to do is, by the end of today's lecture, to give you anything that you need to know how to set up what does it take to set up a probabilistic model.
And what are the basic rules of the game for dealing with probabilistic models? So, by the end of this lecture, you will have essentially recovered half of this semester's tuition, right? So we're going to talk about probabilistic models in more detail-- the sample space, which is basically a description of all the things that may happen during a random experiment, and the probability law, which describes our beliefs about which outcomes are more likely to occur compared to other outcomes.
Probability laws have to obey certain properties that we call the axioms of probability.
So the main part of today's lecture is to describe those axioms, which are the rules of the game, and consider a few really trivial examples. OK, so let's start with our agenda. The first piece in a probabilistic model is a description of the sample space of an experiment. So we do an experiment, and by experiment we just mean that just something happens out there. And that something that happens, it could be flipping a coin, or it could be rolling a dice, or it could be doing something in a card game.
So we fix a particular experiment.
And we come up with a list of all the possible things that may happen during this experiment. So we write down a list of all the possible outcomes. So here's a list of all the possible outcomes of the experiment.
I use the word "list," but, if you want to be a little more formal, it's better to think of that list as a set. So we have a set. That set is our sample space. And it's a set whose elements are the possible outcomes of the experiment. So, for example, if you're dealing with flipping a coin, your sample space would be heads, this is one outcome, tails is one outcome. And this set, which has two elements, is the sample space of the experiment. What do we need to think about when we're setting up the sample space?
First, the list should be mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive. What does that mean? Collectively exhaustive means that, no matter what happens in the experiment, you're going to get one of the outcomes inside here.
So you have not forgotten any of the possibilities of what may happen in the experiment. Mutually exclusive means that if this happens, then that cannot happen. So at the end of the experiment, you should be able to point out to me just one, exactly one, of these outcomes and say, this is the outcome that happened. So these are sort of basic requirements. There's another requirement which is a little more loose.
When you set up your sample space, sometimes you do have some freedom about the details of how you're going to describe it. And the question is, how much detail are you going to include? So let's take this coin flipping experiment and think of the following sample space. One possible outcome is heads, a second possible outcome is tails and it's raining, and the third possible outcome is tails and it's not raining.
So this is another possible sample space for the experiment where I flip a coin just once. It's a legitimate one. Flexible - Read on multiple operating systems and devices.
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Institutional Subscription. Free Shipping Free global shipping No minimum order. New to this Edition: Superior writing style Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics.
Professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability. Preface 1 Introduction to Probability Theory 1. Work and Another Cost Identity 8. Solutions to Starred Exercises Index. English Copyright: Powered by. You are connected as. Connect with: Use your name: Thank you for posting a review!
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