Archive for September 9th, 2010

Weinland’s Fading Thunders

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

In the past few days there have been some discussion on my post Kiwi Second Thunder.  A follower of Ron has posted a list of recent disasters as a comment to prove Weinland’s validity.  Then Mal posted a link to a site with a graph showing that global natural disasters have markedly increased in 2008 and 2009 doubling after being relatively flat in the years 2004 through 2007.  What’s interesting is that the same site has another graph from 2008 showing global natural disasters markedly increasing in 2006 and 2007 after being relatively flat in the years 2001 to 2005.  This site is run by a Holly Deyo who is marketing a survivalist book and thereby stands to profit from fear.  The page with the later graph also republishes an article by Ron Fraser, who is on the staff of another false prophet, That False Prophet Gerald Flurry.

Holly can get away with that because the natural tendency is to recall recent events more clearly than those which have happened some time earlier.  I appreciate Holly not cleaning up her website.

In looking over the page on Holly’s site that Mal linked, I noticed a reference to the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).  This is a non profit associated with the World Health Organization, a United Nations agency.  It has more credibility than a website operated by a fear monger easily demonstrated as a purveyor of lies. Right up at the top of their publications page I found a PDF report which includes the following graph:

CRED Data for Global Natural Disasters

I call your attention to the dotted line which is the number of global natural disasters.  Note that the number of global natural disasters reached a peak of 434 back in 2005 and has been lower every year since.  Back in 2005 and 2006, Weinland was writing his fictional book “2008 God’s Final Witness” and on page 115 he stated:

During the Sixth Seal, all Seven Thunders will be getting progressively louder. Before the Seventh (and final) Seal is opened, the Seven Thunders will become so pronounced that the validity of everything written about them in the previous chapter should roar loudly in the ears of anyone who is willing to admit the truth.

The Sixth Seal ended back in 2008, twice: the first time in March and the second time in November.  The thunders did not become so pronounced.  Rather the ones attributable to natural disasters decreased.  Whatever else you want to interpret from the graph, it clearly shows Weinland to be a false prophet.

And what about the upward trend in natural disasters prior to 2000?  Let’s look at the criteria for disaster used

  • 10 or more people reported killed;
  • 100 or more people reported affected;
  • declaration of a state of emergency;
  • call for international assistance.

Over the past few decades there has been a significant increase in global communications capability, particularly with the growth of the Internet.  Population increases have also contributed.  For example, a tornado might not kill anyone if its path is in a rural area, while it could kill dozens of people in a populated area, and an increasing population increases the number of natural events that will qualify as natural disasters.  These factors continue into the last decade yet the number of annual disasters leveled off and started declining.

So Mal, I appreciate your link as it led to this reliable data showing what a false prophet Ronald Weinland is.